Research
Publications and ongoing research by Murat Abus on political behavior, election science, public administration, political communication, public opinion, local politics, and gender in politics.
Journal Articles
5.
Administrative Unit Proliferation in Parliamentary Systems: Evidence from Turkish Elections, 1960–2018
Electoral Studies (2026)
We argue that in parliamentary systems, electoral motives matter as in presidential systems, but proliferation decisions also depend on government type. Single-party governments are more likely to pursue proliferation to secure electoral success, especially under electoral uncertainty. Using original district-level splits data in Turkey from 1960–2018, we conduct random intercept logistic regression models to test these expectations.
@article{abus2026administrative,
title = {Administrative Unit Proliferation in Parliamentary Systems:
Evidence from {Turkish} Elections, 1960--2018},
author = {Abus, Murat and Ciftci, Sabri},
journal = {Electoral Studies},
year = {2026},
pages = {103087},
volume = {101}
}
4.
The Gendered Politics of Candidate Selection: An Analysis of Left-Right Preferences in Parliamentary Democracies
Political Research Quarterly (2025)
I develop an economic theory of candidate selection based on the supply of and demand for female candidates across parties on the left and the right. Using data for 11,431 women candidates from 61 elections in 23 Western parliamentary democracies between 2005 and 2021, I test theoretical expectations on five candidate-level characteristics from the Comparative Candidates Survey.
@article{abus2025gendered,
title = {The Gendered Politics of Candidate Selection:
An Analysis of Left-Right Preferences in
Parliamentary Democracies},
author = {Abus, Murat},
journal = {Political Research Quarterly},
year = {2025},
number = {3},
volume = {78},
pages = {1060--1073}
}
3.
Local News, Partisanship, and Perceptions About Election Administration
Electoral Studies (2025)
We use individual-level survey data, measures of local news availability, and county-level election results from the 2016 and 2020 cycles to examine whether and how access to local news moderates the effects of partisanship and the winner/loser gap on voter perceptions of election integrity.
@article{abus2025localnews,
title = {Local News, Partisanship, and Perceptions About
Election Administration},
author = {Abus, Murat and Bai, Kexin and Dunaway, Johanna},
journal = {Electoral Studies},
year = {2025},
pages = {102970},
volume = {97}
}
2.
A Theory of Gender's Effect on Vote Shift with a Test Based on Turkish Elections
Mediterranean Politics (2024)
I theorize that when voters are faced with female candidates or female party leaders, their assessment of gender roles will be a deciding factor for whether an intended vote shift will be realized. Taking into account the spatial dependence of factors that affect voting behaviour, I empirically demonstrate that for two ideologically opposing parties, the salience of gender politics affected their vote share in the 2018 general election.
@article{abus2024gender,
title = {A Theory of Gender's Effect on Vote Shift with a
Test Based on {Turkish} Elections},
author = {Abus, Murat},
journal = {Mediterranean Politics},
year = {2024},
volume = {29},
number = {5},
pages = {729--754}
}
1.
Democratization in the Balkans, 1990–2002
Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations (2003)
I argue that "gradualism" is a better way to approach the issue of democratization in the Balkans compared to frameworks that call for a clear separation between transition and consolidation. The results after a decade of democratization are decidedly mixed, but this region surpasses almost all other postcommunist regions with respect to the measures of institutionalization explored.
@article{abus2003democratization,
title = {Democratization in the {Balkans}, 1990--2002},
author = {Abus, Murat},
journal = {Alternatives: {Turkish} Journal of
International Relations},
year = {2003},
volume = {2},
number = {3 \& 4},
pages = {86--105}
}
Works in Progress
"Electoral Consequences of Administrative Reforms"
"Nationalization of Local Elections" (with Cameron Wimpy)
"Turnout in Local Elections" (with Cameron Wimpy)
"Local News and Political Competition" (with Johanna Dunaway)
"Municipalities and Territorial Reforms in the Context of Authoritarianism" (with Sabri Ciftci)
"Local Media Access and Voter Confidence" (with Kexin Bai)